THE United Kingdom government is coming under mounting pressure on two fronts as opinion polls show that a majority of people in Scotland and Northern Ireland want referendums within the next five years to seek the removal of Westminster influence from both countries.
The snapshots, commissioned by The Sunday Times, come as the Conservative UK Government has set itself on a constitutional collision course with the SNP Scottish Government, with the latter being forced to announce that if, as expected, it gets a majority in May’s parliamentary elections, then, once the pandemic is over, it will run its own “legal referendum” and dare Boris Johnson to challenge it in court.
Michael Russell, the Scottish Government’s Constitution Secretary, presented the 11-point “roadmap to a referendum” to the party’s virtual national assembly earlier today, which looked at "alternative routes" to independence.
It states a “legal referendum” will be held after the pandemic if there is a pro-independence majority following the parliamentary vote and that any attempt by the UK Government to challenge the legality of it in the courts would be “vigorously opposed”.
What some will dub a wildcat referendum will lead to a battle in the courts, possibly leading all the way to a ruling by the UK Supreme Court. The Prime Minister has made it repeatedly clear that he will block a democratic referendum from going ahead and even suggested the timescale for Indyref2 shouldn't be for another 40 years.
Yesterday, when asked about whether the SNP had a Plan B should Mr Johnson simply keep saying no, Ian Blackford, the party leader at Westminster, made clear that he preferred the Section 30 option, that is, Westminster and Holyrood agreeing to Indyref2 as was the case in 2014.
One of the new polls suggests 50% of people in Scotland want another vote on the nation’s future within the term of this next Holyrood Parliament following the elections in May; 43% said no there should not be one then.
Some 49% of Scottish voters said they thought it likely Scotland would be independent within 10 years while 30% said it was unlikely. Indeed, across the whole of the UK the survey suggested all nations believed this would be the case with the split between those thinking Scottish independence before 2031 would be likely or unlikely being 60% to 28% in Northern Ireland, 49% to 19% in England and 49% to 23% in Wales.
The snapshot put support for Scottish independence at 53% with those opposed at 47%, when undecideds were removed. Raw figures showed 49% Yes, 44% No, and 7% undecided, the breakdown with 4% going to Yes and 3% going to No means the state of play is 53% Yes 47% No, although much of the media in Scotland (avowedly Unionist) opted to apportion the majority of the Undecided percentage in favour of No instead of just presenting it as it is.
This is now the 20th consecutive poll to put the Scottish campaign ahead.
A state of the parties forecast suggests in May the SNP would win 70 seats, up seven since the last election in 2016, with the Conservatives on 25, down six, Labour on 19, down four, the Greens on 10, up four, and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on five.
Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland 51% of voters said they wanted a border poll within the next parliamentary term while 44% did not; 5% did not know.
Ulster unionists have a very small lead over those who support a united Ireland, 47% to 42%. However, another 11% remain undecided and the direction of travel appears to be going with Irish unionists and not their British unionist opponents.
Other snapshots in England and Wales showed majorities against these nations becoming independent.
Last week, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office Minister, who often speaks for Westminster on these matters in media interviews, chaired a Whitehall meeting with other senior ministers, who included the Secretaries of State for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, to discuss a campaign to promote the Union ahead of the Holyrood poll.
Newspapers like the Herald in Scotland have reported how the UK Government is planning a “big propaganda push” to try and promote themselves and try and tar their Scottish opponents as, post-Brexit and post-Covid, the constitution is moving towards the top of the political agenda.
Battling the coronavirus has dominated business in London and Edinburgh but George Osborne, the former Chancellor, noted last week how “Brexit has made the future of the UK the central political issue of the coming decade”.
Mr Johnson, who styles himself the Minister for the Union, is said to be intent on beefing up Downing St’s Union Unit and is believed to have asked civil servants to write him a big speech laden with catchy slogans and sentiment ahead of Easter.
The UK Government’s Union Policy Implementation Committee has drawn up a programme that will include mounting a big fight in the Holyrood poll led by Douglas Ross, the part time linesman and Scottish Tory leader, alongside a campaign to promote the benefits of the Union. It is understood Brexit won't feature high on this list, as over 62% oppose it.
The Dunlop Review on strengthening the Union, which has been sitting on Mr Johnson’s desk since 2019 and has constantly been pushed back because of focus on other issues, looks set to see the light of day in the last few weeks before purdah sets in and is supposed to ban any Government announcements.
Mr Gove has already been in contact with Gordon Brown, the former Labour MP, and other senior politicians on how to draw up a new Better Together strategy to save their political Union.
There has even been talk in Whitehall of including Scotland’s role in the Union as part of the Conservatives’ promised constitution commission, which should have started work 18 months ago but, again, was delayed because of other matters.
Such a move would be seen by some Tories as a means of buying time in the constitutional battle ahead but would be dismissed by Yes campaigners as a naked attempt to try and further defer and dismiss the issue.
One minister, talking of the plight of the Union, noted: “I don’t think there is any member of the Cabinet, who now doesn’t realise the importance of this.”
Oliver Lewis, a leading light in the Vote Leave campaign and who served as Lord Frost’s deputy in the Brexit negotiations, is expected to take charge of the backroom strategy to save the Union.
Liz Truss, the International Trade Secretary, and Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Business Secretary, also attended last week’s Union Committee as one of Mr Johnson’s early priorities in his talks with Joe Biden, the new American President, whom he spoke to on Saturday, is to get the US tariffs on whisky lifted. If this could happen in the run-up to the Holyrood poll, this would be promoted as a major coup for Unionist politicians. The tariffs have led to a 30% drop in Scotch whisky sales in America, representing around $250 million of lost business.
Although many Scots will feel that the billions raked in on Whisky duties, enjoyed by the treasury in London, don't put a loaf on their tables, and have been further impoverished by the UK's disastrous Brexit negotiations. So it is a desperately tricky balancing act and one which UK ministers have been seen to be uninterested in dealing with for far too long.
Today’s survey suggests a mixture of Brexit, the responses to the pandemic by Mr Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon, and many Scots’ aversion to the PM had helped the rise in support for independence and running another vote. Indeed, some Scottish Tories believe that Mr Johnson is a “liability” and will be urged by candidates standing for the party at the Scottish parliamentary election to please stay away.
Responding to the Scottish poll, Keith Brown, the SNP deputy leader, said: “With 20 consecutive polls putting support for independence in the majority, it’s clear that people in Scotland believe they have the right to decide their own future, rather than being subjected to Westminster governments that they rarely, if ever, vote for.
“By imposing a devastating hard Brexit in the middle of a global pandemic, visiting chaos on our fishing industry, grabbing powers from the country's parliament and denying democracy in a Trump-like manner, the Tories have shown they can't be trusted to act in our best interests.
“These polls are encouraging, but we're not taking anything for granted. The only way to deliver the referendum and put our future in our own hands, is with both votes going to the SNP.”
He added: “We have the absolute right to escape this Brexit mess, and choose a better future for ourselves, as the 28th independent member of the European Union.”
In his interview yesterday with Scottish media Mr Blackford, while stressing independence was the best solution for Scotland, did not outright trash the idea of having a devo-max option on any Indyref2 ballot paper.
Full federalism is Labour and the Liberal Democrats’ preferred option. While Sir Keir Starmer has been adamantly opposed to running another Scottish referendum in the run-up to the May elections, his views thereafter are unclear.
Some at Westminster believe that, given the mountain Labour has to climb to get a Commons majority at the 2024 General Election – it would need a swing larger than the one Tony Blair secured in the party’s landslide in1997 – that Sir Keir, if Labour do become the biggest party, might consider a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP whose price would be Indyref2. Indeed this is an issue that, if not settled beforehand, will be weaponised and used against them by the Conservative media again, and so he has strategically set his stall out early.
Panelbase polled 1,206 adults resident in Scotland between January 19 and 22. YouGov polled 1,416 English adults between January 19 and 20, and 1,059 people in Wales aged 16 and over between January 18 and 21. Lucidtalk polled 2,392 people in Northern Ireland aged 16 and over between January 15 and 18.
*Scottish citizens will note that this poll appears to be lower in relation to support for Yes than it has been lately. We don't think this is a result of waning enthusiasm, rather we suspect that it is because Panelbase had decided to omit 16 and 17 year old voters from their survey. A very high percentage of Scotland's youth have usually opted to vote Yes in these surveys. Hence the lower returns for this option.
