LATEST POLL SUGGESTS SNP TO FALL WELL SHORT IN CONSTITUENCIES

Party predicted to fall short in constituencies

THE SNP look set to return the worst election result since it first came to power in 2007, a shock new opinion poll shows.

The survey shows the SNP still being the biggest party in the Holyrood chamber, however they would be well short of achieving a majority and the pro indy majority could also be lost if the Greens can't make up the numbers, as Alex Salmond's Alba Party are forecast to once again return 0 seats, stripping 3-4% from the SNP in Regions and failing to win anything with it.

According to the Savanta ComRes poll for The Scotsman, the SNP would return 59 MSPs which is six seats short of having the executive power to be able to govern competently without the assistance of others.

The standard sample of Scottish adults aged 16 or over were asked their voting intentions between April 30 and May 4 for the poll.

When the SNP swept to power in 2007, Alex Salmond secured 47 seats while in 2011 he managed to secure a majority with 69 seats.

At the last election in 2016, Nicola Sturgeon won a higher vote share across the country but failed to secure a majority by just two seats when the SNP returned 63 MSPs to Holyrood. The party identified the leakage on the List for costing them a majority.

A conclusion also reached by Alex Salmond in the aftermath of the last election, when he took a thinly veiled swipe at the Greens for costing the SNP a majority and reducing the number of pro independence MSPs in parliament. Mr Salmond accused them of "misrepresenting the vote". But in an astonishing about-face Mr Salmond is now attempting to replicate the Green strategy of 2016.

Douglas Ross and his Scottish Conservatives would be the second biggest party in the parliament with 29 seats, which is two fewer than they had after the 2016 vote.

Scottish Labour would be three MSPs behind the Tories on 26 seats, which would be two more than in 2016.

If Scottish Greens manage to win their highest ever number of seats (10) there could still be a majority for independence in the parliament. But everything is on a knife edge and it appears that the SNP vote in constituencies is not going to do as well as some believed, this coupled with the amount of people that are splitting their second votes, the worst of all circumstances that the party warned about might actually come home to roost.

SNP STILL MILES AHEAD IN POLLS DESPITE RECENT DIFFICULTIES

The SNP remain on course for a majority at the Scottish Parliamentary election in May, according to a new STV News/Ipsos MORI poll.

However, support for the party has slipped slightly, with the ongoing Alex Salmond inquiry making some voters think twice.

Backing for Scottish independence has also fallen in the latest poll – although 52% of the most likely voters said they would back independence from the rest of the UK.

Scotland goes to the ballot box on May 6, with the poll projecting that the SNP will win 72 of the 129 seats – nine more than now and giving them a majority of 15.

The Scottish Conservatives would be the second biggest party on 26 seats, with Scottish Labour on 17, the Scottish Greens on nine and the Scottish Liberal Democrats on five.

Ipsos MORI polled a base of voters in Scotland between February 15-21.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “This latest poll from Ipsos MORI and STV News shows a fall in support for independence, and a corresponding increase in support for staying in the union – though Yes still has a four-point lead over No.

“That’s important for Scotland’s political parties, since independence is the top issue voters say will help them make up their minds about which party to vote for in May’s Holyrood elections.

“At this point the SNP look on course to win a majority of seats, but the next few weeks are set to be challenging for the party, with the Salmond inquiry ongoing.”

Voting intention

Constituency vote

• SNP: 52% (-3 compared with November 20-26)

• Scottish Conservatives: 23% (+1)

• Scottish Labour: 15% (+1)

• Scottish Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)

• Scottish Green Party: 3% (+2)

• Other: 2% (unchanged)

Regional list vote

• SNP: 47% (unchanged)

• Scottish Conservatives: 22% (unchanged)

• Scottish Labour: 14% (-2)

• Scottish Green Party: 8% (+1)

• Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (unchanged)

• Other: 3% (+1)

Salmond impact

The ongoing inquiry into how the Scottish Government initially handled its investigation into harassment claims against the former first minister Alex Salmond is affecting some voters’ thoughts.

Among a number of claims, Salmond says his successor Nicola Sturgeon breached the ministerial code. If that’s proved in a separate investigation due to conclude in the coming weeks, the First Minister would be under huge pressure to resign.

The poll found that 36% of all voters and 21% of those who voted SNP at the 2019 general election felt ‘less favourably’ towards the party as a result of the Salmond saga.

Independence

There’s been a four-point reduction in support for Scottish independence since the last STV News/Ipsos MORI poll in November.

Backing for independence from the UK now leads 52-48 – a shift from 56-44 in the previous projection.

And while 56% believe an SNP majority in May should lead to a second referendum within the next parliament, that’s down eight points from the previous poll.

Leaders

Nicola Sturgeon retains a sizeable lead in the satisfaction stakes, at 64%.

Willie Rennie of the Scottish Lib Dems and Patrick Harvie of the Greens both leave 35% of voters satisfied.

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross is the least popular with just 28% satisfied with him.

What matters to voters?

Voters were asked what issues they considered ‘very important’ when deciding which party to support.

Scottish independence: 44%

Education: 32%

Healthcare/NHS: 25%

Coronavirus: 20%

Managing the economy: 18%

Brexit: 12%

Environment/climate change: 12%