NEW SURVATION POLL SUGGESTS SNP COULD WIN A ONE SEAT MAJORITY

The SNP could be on course for a slim overall majority at Holyrood, paving the way for another showdown with Downing Street over independence, according to another eve-of-poll survey.

Nicola Sturgeon’s party appears to be far enough ahead to pick up three more seats than in 2016, ending with 66 MSPs.

That’s just over half of the 129 places in the Scottish Parliament, and would be enough for the SNP to govern alone and claim another mandate for a referendum.

In the volatile race for second place, research for us by pollsters Survation suggests the Conservatives could cling on as the largest opposition group – but only just, at a reduced 24 seats.

Scottish Labour could slip back again by one seat to 23 despite signs of growing popularity for new leader Anas Sarwar. Lib Dems would remain unchanged with just five seats.

Greens would do well on Survation’s results, picking up an extra five regional seats to reach a total of 11 MSPs.

Independence majority

The balance in favour of a referendum, when SNP and Greens are combined, would total 77 of the 129 MSPs in the chamber – all without any members elected from Alex Salmond’s Alba party, who by almost all polling accounts, looks certain to peel around 3-4% from other pro independence parties and fail to do anything with it.

Meanwhile, Survation found support for independence had slipped back by a point from their last research in April. With people who don’t know taken out, the result is 52-48 in favour of the union – a result which still shows a major split across the country.

There is just one day to go before polling stations open, and party leaders are making a last-ditch appeal to voters in what is seen as a make-or-break election for Scotland’s future under the Westminster political system.

‘It could all depend on nine or so constituencies’

Elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice told us several polling firms are picking up a similar pattern for the SNP as election day looms.

“The SNP does appear to be getting more support which would give them a slight majority on these results,” he said.

Professor Sir John Curtice.

“But it could all depend on nine or so constituencies, which could change the balance.”

The seat projections are predicated upon the results of the opinion poll being replicated across the country. Which is unlikely to happen seat for seat, due to the unpredictability of the List vote.

Survation’s research was based on responses from adults in Scotland between April 30 and May 4.

Voters are asked to make two choices, the first for a constituency MSP in a first-past-the-post contest. The second party vote is a proportional way of electing regional members to parliament.

In constituencies, the SNP are on 49%, Labour and the Tories are neck and neck on 21%, Lib Dems are on 8% and the Greens are on just 1%.

On the regional vote, the SNP increased their share from Survation’s last poll to 36%, the Tories are up one point on 21%, Labour fall three points to 19%, Greens score 10% and Lib Dems are on 7%.

Mr Salmond’s Alba party scored 3%, which would not be enough to get any candidates elected. But Alba polled slightly higher in the North East parliamentary region, which puts him closer to getting a chance of re-entering Holyrood.

Tories have been campaigning with the message that an SNP majority will lead to another referendum.

Scottish Conservative candidate Annie Wells said: “Yet another poll shows that only the Scottish Conservatives can stop an SNP majority, stop another independence referendum and get all of the focus back on rebuilding Scotland.

Annie Wells.

“Eight polls in the last week have demonstrated that voting for the biggest opposition party, the Scottish Conservatives, is the only way to stop an SNP majority.

“We can only get the Scottish Parliament 100% focused on Scotland’s recovery if pro-UK, anti-referendum voters come together and lend their peach party list ballots to the Scottish Conservatives.”

‘Don’t leave it to chance’

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “With the election in just a day’s time, there are 24 hours to secure the strong, experienced leadership of our team which is needed to keep Scotland safe.

“The result of every Parliamentary Election is always on a knife-edge, nothing can be taken for granted so, please, don’t leave it to chance: make it #BothVotesSNP.

“We are the only party with an immediate plan to get the country through the pandemic.

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon.

“And we are the only party with a serious programme for government to kick-start economic recovery, remobilise our NHS and to tackle the climate crisis – but to get that government people have to vote for it.

“The London-based parties have fought the most negative campaign in the history of devolution with every one of them openly admitting they don’t want or expect to form a government. Instead they want to leave Scotland’s future in the hands of others.

“To avoid that risk I'm asking the people of Scotland to re-elect me as First Minister so I can get on with the job of keeping Scotland safe and to lead the country to a better, brighter future.”

Labour focused on ‘national recovery’

Shadow Scottish Secretary Ian Murray, the MP for Edinburgh South, drew attention to an overnight campaign that saw his party’s recovery message beamed across landmarks.

“Scottish Labour is taking its message for a brighter future across the country,” he said.

“It might go over the heads of the SNP and the Tories, but our focus is a national recovery for a stronger, fairer Scotland.

“If that’s your priority too, use both your votes, especially the peach ballot paper, for Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour.”

However, Labour's campaign hit the skids yesterday after senior party member and former chancellor Alastair Darling released a statement to Tory voters claiming that the Scottish Labour leader shared the Tories' priorities. Darling was trying to appeal to Tories to lend their vote to Labour but the claim that the Labour leader shares the Tories' priorities will have shocked many voters who were hitherto considering giving them a vote.

Polls open across Scotland at 7am tomorrow and close at 10pm. Final results are expected around Saturday tea time.

LATEST POLL SUGGESTS SNP TO FALL WELL SHORT IN CONSTITUENCIES

Party predicted to fall short in constituencies

THE SNP look set to return the worst election result since it first came to power in 2007, a shock new opinion poll shows.

The survey shows the SNP still being the biggest party in the Holyrood chamber, however they would be well short of achieving a majority and the pro indy majority could also be lost if the Greens can't make up the numbers, as Alex Salmond's Alba Party are forecast to once again return 0 seats, stripping 3-4% from the SNP in Regions and failing to win anything with it.

According to the Savanta ComRes poll for The Scotsman, the SNP would return 59 MSPs which is six seats short of having the executive power to be able to govern competently without the assistance of others.

The standard sample of Scottish adults aged 16 or over were asked their voting intentions between April 30 and May 4 for the poll.

When the SNP swept to power in 2007, Alex Salmond secured 47 seats while in 2011 he managed to secure a majority with 69 seats.

At the last election in 2016, Nicola Sturgeon won a higher vote share across the country but failed to secure a majority by just two seats when the SNP returned 63 MSPs to Holyrood. The party identified the leakage on the List for costing them a majority.

A conclusion also reached by Alex Salmond in the aftermath of the last election, when he took a thinly veiled swipe at the Greens for costing the SNP a majority and reducing the number of pro independence MSPs in parliament. Mr Salmond accused them of "misrepresenting the vote". But in an astonishing about-face Mr Salmond is now attempting to replicate the Green strategy of 2016.

Douglas Ross and his Scottish Conservatives would be the second biggest party in the parliament with 29 seats, which is two fewer than they had after the 2016 vote.

Scottish Labour would be three MSPs behind the Tories on 26 seats, which would be two more than in 2016.

If Scottish Greens manage to win their highest ever number of seats (10) there could still be a majority for independence in the parliament. But everything is on a knife edge and it appears that the SNP vote in constituencies is not going to do as well as some believed, this coupled with the amount of people that are splitting their second votes, the worst of all circumstances that the party warned about might actually come home to roost.

SNP STILL MILES AHEAD IN POLLS DESPITE RECENT DIFFICULTIES

The SNP remain on course for a majority at the Scottish Parliamentary election in May, according to a new STV News/Ipsos MORI poll.

However, support for the party has slipped slightly, with the ongoing Alex Salmond inquiry making some voters think twice.

Backing for Scottish independence has also fallen in the latest poll – although 52% of the most likely voters said they would back independence from the rest of the UK.

Scotland goes to the ballot box on May 6, with the poll projecting that the SNP will win 72 of the 129 seats – nine more than now and giving them a majority of 15.

The Scottish Conservatives would be the second biggest party on 26 seats, with Scottish Labour on 17, the Scottish Greens on nine and the Scottish Liberal Democrats on five.

Ipsos MORI polled a base of voters in Scotland between February 15-21.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “This latest poll from Ipsos MORI and STV News shows a fall in support for independence, and a corresponding increase in support for staying in the union – though Yes still has a four-point lead over No.

“That’s important for Scotland’s political parties, since independence is the top issue voters say will help them make up their minds about which party to vote for in May’s Holyrood elections.

“At this point the SNP look on course to win a majority of seats, but the next few weeks are set to be challenging for the party, with the Salmond inquiry ongoing.”

Voting intention

Constituency vote

• SNP: 52% (-3 compared with November 20-26)

• Scottish Conservatives: 23% (+1)

• Scottish Labour: 15% (+1)

• Scottish Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)

• Scottish Green Party: 3% (+2)

• Other: 2% (unchanged)

Regional list vote

• SNP: 47% (unchanged)

• Scottish Conservatives: 22% (unchanged)

• Scottish Labour: 14% (-2)

• Scottish Green Party: 8% (+1)

• Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (unchanged)

• Other: 3% (+1)

Salmond impact

The ongoing inquiry into how the Scottish Government initially handled its investigation into harassment claims against the former first minister Alex Salmond is affecting some voters’ thoughts.

Among a number of claims, Salmond says his successor Nicola Sturgeon breached the ministerial code. If that’s proved in a separate investigation due to conclude in the coming weeks, the First Minister would be under huge pressure to resign.

The poll found that 36% of all voters and 21% of those who voted SNP at the 2019 general election felt ‘less favourably’ towards the party as a result of the Salmond saga.

Independence

There’s been a four-point reduction in support for Scottish independence since the last STV News/Ipsos MORI poll in November.

Backing for independence from the UK now leads 52-48 – a shift from 56-44 in the previous projection.

And while 56% believe an SNP majority in May should lead to a second referendum within the next parliament, that’s down eight points from the previous poll.

Leaders

Nicola Sturgeon retains a sizeable lead in the satisfaction stakes, at 64%.

Willie Rennie of the Scottish Lib Dems and Patrick Harvie of the Greens both leave 35% of voters satisfied.

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross is the least popular with just 28% satisfied with him.

What matters to voters?

Voters were asked what issues they considered ‘very important’ when deciding which party to support.

Scottish independence: 44%

Education: 32%

Healthcare/NHS: 25%

Coronavirus: 20%

Managing the economy: 18%

Brexit: 12%

Environment/climate change: 12%

53% YES IN LATEST POLLING ON INDEPENDENCE

Support for Scottish independence was reported in the UK media as having taken a slight hit, with the majority of people still thinking Scotland should remove the Westminster government and become an independent country. 

Although, when the final outcome of poll results are identical to those of the last poll, with the UK media reporting the findings of the last poll with support for independence 1% lower than it actually was, if they were consistent with this narrative then support for independence has actually risen by a percentage point, from 52% Yes in the last poll, to 53% Yes now.

The poll carried out by the Savanta ComRes shows that 47 per cent of the people interviewed between February 4 and 9 said "Yes" when asked if Scotland should be independent, while 42 per cent opposed. The margin rose to 53 per cent to 47 per cent when undecided people were excluded.

It was the 21st poll in a row that shows majority support for independence, although the undecided percentage rose slightly, taking away from both confirmative outcomes compared to January. This coincides with a well publicised spat by two senior members of the pro independence movement, whose supporters have been crying out for them to stop it, although their cries appear to have fallen on deaf ears.

The poll also showed that the ruling Scottish National Party is on track to win the majority of seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for May.

The leader of the Scottish Government, Nicola Sturgeon, has repeatedly pledged that she will push for another independence referendum if her party remains in power, either as a standalone majority government or if sharing power with another pro independence party, most likely the Greens.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has argued, however, that pro independence leaders said the the 2014 referendum, when Scotland voted against independence by 55 per cent to 45 per cent, was a "once-in-a-generation vote," so he said he will not grant the people of Scotland his permission to hold another vote.

Ms Sturgeon argues that Brexit has materially changed the entire landscape, because pro Unionist politicians promised Scotland that the only way to secure their European citizenship was to vote No, which they did, before being forced to leave the EU despite an overwhelming majority of Scottish voters (62%) opting to remain within the bloc.

So it seems both sides are building their cases for and against another vote on the rhetotical flourishes and broken promises of one another. Though it appears that the pro independence side have morally the stronger argument, with the Westminster side appearing to have assumed legal clout on their side.

65% WANT FM TO CONTINUE WITH COVID BRIEFINGS

THE Tories have been calling for the First Minister to be replaced by a medical expert in Scotland's daily Covid briefings.

Alister Jack told a journalist from The Herald on Saturday that, "if the First Minister continued broadcasting to the public, it would gain her an unfair electoral advantage in the run-up to May's elections".

Asked if Boris Johnson should also step aside south of the border, Jack said "the Prime Minister isn't standing for re election in May."

Questioned on TV by the BBC's Gary Miller this morning as to why Mr Johnson thought it essential to come to Scotland whilst the rest of the country are asked to work from home, Jack insisted that it was essential for "a general to go out to the front line to meet the troops".

The Tories continue to deny that they're seeking to politicise the pandemic.

A poll was being run by the Herald, asking: Do you agree with Alister Jack that the First Minister should be replaced by a health spokesperson in Covid briefings? With over 20,000 having their say, 65% want the First Minister to continue with the broadcasts.

You can view the poll by clicking this >> LINK

POLLS SHOW 53% MAJORITY IN FAVOUR OF INDEPENDENCE

THE United Kingdom government is coming under mounting pressure on two fronts as opinion polls show that a majority of people in Scotland and Northern Ireland want referendums within the next five years to seek the removal of Westminster influence from both countries.

The snapshots, commissioned by The Sunday Times, come as the Conservative UK Government has set itself on a constitutional collision course with the SNP Scottish Government, with the latter being forced to announce that if, as expected, it gets a majority in May’s parliamentary elections, then, once the pandemic is over, it will run its own “legal referendum” and dare Boris Johnson to challenge it in court.

Michael Russell, the Scottish Government’s Constitution Secretary, presented the 11-point “roadmap to a referendum” to the party’s virtual national assembly earlier today, which looked at "alternative routes" to independence.

It states a “legal referendum” will be held after the pandemic if there is a pro-independence majority following the parliamentary vote and that any attempt by the UK Government to challenge the legality of it in the courts would be “vigorously opposed”.

What some will dub a wildcat referendum will lead to a battle in the courts, possibly leading all the way to a ruling by the UK Supreme Court. The Prime Minister has made it repeatedly clear that he will block a democratic referendum from going ahead and even suggested the timescale for Indyref2 shouldn't be for another 40 years.

Yesterday, when asked about whether the SNP had a Plan B should Mr Johnson simply keep saying no, Ian Blackford, the party leader at Westminster, made clear that he preferred the Section 30 option, that is, Westminster and Holyrood agreeing to Indyref2 as was the case in 2014.

One of the new polls suggests 50% of people in Scotland want another vote on the nation’s future  within the term of this next Holyrood Parliament following the elections in May; 43% said no there should not be one then.

Some 49% of Scottish voters said they thought it likely Scotland would be independent within 10 years while 30% said it was unlikely. Indeed, across the whole of the UK the survey suggested all nations believed this would be the case with the split between those thinking Scottish independence before 2031 would be likely or unlikely being 60% to 28% in Northern Ireland, 49% to 19% in England and 49% to 23% in Wales.

The snapshot put support for Scottish independence at 53% with those opposed at 47%, when undecideds were removed. Raw figures showed 49% Yes, 44% No, and 7% undecided, the breakdown with 4% going to Yes and 3% going to No means the state of play is 53% Yes 47% No, although much of the media in Scotland (avowedly Unionist) opted to apportion the majority of the Undecided percentage in favour of No instead of just presenting it as it is.

This is now the 20th consecutive poll to put the Scottish campaign ahead.

A state of the parties forecast suggests in May the SNP would win 70 seats, up seven since the last election in 2016, with the Conservatives on 25, down six, Labour on 19, down four, the Greens on 10, up four, and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on five.

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland 51% of voters said they wanted a border poll within the next parliamentary term while 44% did not; 5% did not know.

Ulster unionists have a very small lead over those who support a united Ireland, 47% to 42%. However, another 11% remain undecided and the direction of travel appears to be going with Irish unionists and not their British unionist opponents.

Other snapshots in England and Wales showed majorities against these nations becoming independent.

Last week, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office Minister, who often speaks for Westminster on these matters in media interviews, chaired a Whitehall meeting with other senior ministers, who included the Secretaries of State for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, to discuss a campaign to promote the Union ahead of the Holyrood poll.

Newspapers like the Herald in Scotland have reported how the UK Government is planning a “big propaganda push” to try and promote themselves and try and tar their Scottish opponents as, post-Brexit and post-Covid, the constitution is moving towards the top of the political agenda.

Battling the coronavirus has dominated business in London and Edinburgh but George Osborne, the former Chancellor, noted last week how “Brexit has made the future of the UK the central political issue of the coming decade”.

Mr Johnson, who styles himself the Minister for the Union, is said to be intent on beefing up Downing St’s Union Unit and is believed to have asked civil servants to write him a big speech laden with catchy slogans and sentiment ahead of Easter.

The UK Government’s Union Policy Implementation Committee has drawn up a programme that will include mounting a big fight in the Holyrood poll led by Douglas Ross, the part time linesman and Scottish Tory leader, alongside a campaign to promote the benefits of the Union. It is understood Brexit won't feature high on this list, as over 62% oppose it.

The Dunlop Review on strengthening the Union, which has been sitting on Mr Johnson’s desk since 2019 and has constantly been pushed back because of focus on other issues, looks set to see the light of day in the last few weeks before purdah sets in and is supposed to ban any Government announcements.

Mr Gove has already been in contact with Gordon Brown, the former Labour MP, and other senior politicians on how to draw up a new Better Together strategy to save their political Union.

There has even been talk in Whitehall of including Scotland’s role in the Union as part of the Conservatives’ promised constitution commission, which should have started work 18 months ago but, again, was delayed because of other matters.

Such a move would be seen by some Tories as a means of buying time in the constitutional battle ahead but would be dismissed by Yes campaigners as a naked attempt to try and further defer and dismiss the issue.

One minister, talking of the plight of the Union, noted: “I don’t think there is any member of the Cabinet, who now doesn’t realise the importance of this.”

Oliver Lewis, a leading light in the Vote Leave campaign and who served as Lord Frost’s deputy in the Brexit negotiations, is expected to take charge of the backroom strategy to save the Union.

Liz Truss, the International Trade Secretary, and Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Business Secretary, also attended last week’s Union Committee as one of Mr Johnson’s early priorities in his talks with Joe Biden, the new American President, whom he spoke to on Saturday, is to get the US tariffs on whisky lifted. If this could happen in the run-up to the Holyrood poll, this would be promoted as a major coup for Unionist politicians. The tariffs have led to a 30% drop in Scotch whisky sales in America, representing around $250 million of lost business.

Although many Scots will feel that the billions raked in on Whisky duties, enjoyed by the treasury in London, don't put a loaf on their tables, and have been further impoverished by the UK's disastrous Brexit negotiations. So it is a desperately tricky balancing act and one which UK ministers have been seen to be uninterested in dealing with for far too long.

Today’s survey suggests a mixture of Brexit, the responses to the pandemic by Mr Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon, and many Scots’ aversion to the PM had helped the rise in support for independence and running another vote. Indeed, some Scottish Tories believe that Mr Johnson is a “liability” and will be urged by candidates standing for the party at the Scottish parliamentary election to please stay away.

Responding to the Scottish poll, Keith Brown, the SNP deputy leader, said: “With 20 consecutive polls putting support for independence in the majority, it’s clear that people in Scotland believe they have the right to decide their own future, rather than being subjected to Westminster governments that they rarely, if ever, vote for.

“By imposing a devastating hard Brexit in the middle of a global pandemic, visiting chaos on our fishing industry, grabbing powers from the country's parliament and denying democracy in a Trump-like manner, the Tories have shown they can't be trusted to act in our best interests.

“These polls are encouraging, but we're not taking anything for granted. The only way to deliver the referendum and put our future in our own hands, is with both votes going to the SNP.”

He added: “We have the absolute right to escape this Brexit mess, and choose a better future for ourselves, as the 28th independent member of the European Union.”

In his interview yesterday with Scottish media Mr Blackford, while stressing independence was the best solution for Scotland, did not outright trash the idea of having a devo-max option on any Indyref2 ballot paper.

Full federalism is Labour and the Liberal Democrats’ preferred option. While Sir Keir Starmer has been adamantly opposed to running another Scottish referendum in the run-up to the May elections, his views thereafter are unclear.

Some at Westminster believe that, given the mountain Labour has to climb to get a Commons majority at the 2024 General Election – it would need a swing larger than the one Tony Blair secured in the party’s landslide in1997 – that Sir Keir, if Labour do become the biggest party, might consider a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP whose price would be Indyref2. Indeed this is an issue that, if not settled beforehand, will be weaponised and used against them by the Conservative media again, and so he has strategically set his stall out early.

Panelbase polled 1,206 adults resident in Scotland between January 19 and 22. YouGov polled 1,416 English adults between January 19 and 20, and 1,059 people in Wales aged 16 and over between January 18 and 21. Lucidtalk polled 2,392 people in Northern Ireland aged 16 and over between January 15 and 18.

*Scottish citizens will note that this poll appears to be lower in relation to support for Yes than it has been lately. We don't think this is a result of waning enthusiasm, rather we suspect that it is because Panelbase had decided to omit 16 and 17 year old voters from their survey. A very high percentage of Scotland's youth have usually opted to vote Yes in these surveys. Hence the lower returns for this option.