SNP STILL MILES AHEAD IN POLLS DESPITE RECENT DIFFICULTIES

The SNP remain on course for a majority at the Scottish Parliamentary election in May, according to a new STV News/Ipsos MORI poll.

However, support for the party has slipped slightly, with the ongoing Alex Salmond inquiry making some voters think twice.

Backing for Scottish independence has also fallen in the latest poll – although 52% of the most likely voters said they would back independence from the rest of the UK.

Scotland goes to the ballot box on May 6, with the poll projecting that the SNP will win 72 of the 129 seats – nine more than now and giving them a majority of 15.

The Scottish Conservatives would be the second biggest party on 26 seats, with Scottish Labour on 17, the Scottish Greens on nine and the Scottish Liberal Democrats on five.

Ipsos MORI polled a base of voters in Scotland between February 15-21.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “This latest poll from Ipsos MORI and STV News shows a fall in support for independence, and a corresponding increase in support for staying in the union – though Yes still has a four-point lead over No.

“That’s important for Scotland’s political parties, since independence is the top issue voters say will help them make up their minds about which party to vote for in May’s Holyrood elections.

“At this point the SNP look on course to win a majority of seats, but the next few weeks are set to be challenging for the party, with the Salmond inquiry ongoing.”

Voting intention

Constituency vote

• SNP: 52% (-3 compared with November 20-26)

• Scottish Conservatives: 23% (+1)

• Scottish Labour: 15% (+1)

• Scottish Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)

• Scottish Green Party: 3% (+2)

• Other: 2% (unchanged)

Regional list vote

• SNP: 47% (unchanged)

• Scottish Conservatives: 22% (unchanged)

• Scottish Labour: 14% (-2)

• Scottish Green Party: 8% (+1)

• Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (unchanged)

• Other: 3% (+1)

Salmond impact

The ongoing inquiry into how the Scottish Government initially handled its investigation into harassment claims against the former first minister Alex Salmond is affecting some voters’ thoughts.

Among a number of claims, Salmond says his successor Nicola Sturgeon breached the ministerial code. If that’s proved in a separate investigation due to conclude in the coming weeks, the First Minister would be under huge pressure to resign.

The poll found that 36% of all voters and 21% of those who voted SNP at the 2019 general election felt ‘less favourably’ towards the party as a result of the Salmond saga.

Independence

There’s been a four-point reduction in support for Scottish independence since the last STV News/Ipsos MORI poll in November.

Backing for independence from the UK now leads 52-48 – a shift from 56-44 in the previous projection.

And while 56% believe an SNP majority in May should lead to a second referendum within the next parliament, that’s down eight points from the previous poll.

Leaders

Nicola Sturgeon retains a sizeable lead in the satisfaction stakes, at 64%.

Willie Rennie of the Scottish Lib Dems and Patrick Harvie of the Greens both leave 35% of voters satisfied.

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross is the least popular with just 28% satisfied with him.

What matters to voters?

Voters were asked what issues they considered ‘very important’ when deciding which party to support.

Scottish independence: 44%

Education: 32%

Healthcare/NHS: 25%

Coronavirus: 20%

Managing the economy: 18%

Brexit: 12%

Environment/climate change: 12%

53% YES IN LATEST POLLING ON INDEPENDENCE

Support for Scottish independence was reported in the UK media as having taken a slight hit, with the majority of people still thinking Scotland should remove the Westminster government and become an independent country. 

Although, when the final outcome of poll results are identical to those of the last poll, with the UK media reporting the findings of the last poll with support for independence 1% lower than it actually was, if they were consistent with this narrative then support for independence has actually risen by a percentage point, from 52% Yes in the last poll, to 53% Yes now.

The poll carried out by the Savanta ComRes shows that 47 per cent of the people interviewed between February 4 and 9 said "Yes" when asked if Scotland should be independent, while 42 per cent opposed. The margin rose to 53 per cent to 47 per cent when undecided people were excluded.

It was the 21st poll in a row that shows majority support for independence, although the undecided percentage rose slightly, taking away from both confirmative outcomes compared to January. This coincides with a well publicised spat by two senior members of the pro independence movement, whose supporters have been crying out for them to stop it, although their cries appear to have fallen on deaf ears.

The poll also showed that the ruling Scottish National Party is on track to win the majority of seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for May.

The leader of the Scottish Government, Nicola Sturgeon, has repeatedly pledged that she will push for another independence referendum if her party remains in power, either as a standalone majority government or if sharing power with another pro independence party, most likely the Greens.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has argued, however, that pro independence leaders said the the 2014 referendum, when Scotland voted against independence by 55 per cent to 45 per cent, was a "once-in-a-generation vote," so he said he will not grant the people of Scotland his permission to hold another vote.

Ms Sturgeon argues that Brexit has materially changed the entire landscape, because pro Unionist politicians promised Scotland that the only way to secure their European citizenship was to vote No, which they did, before being forced to leave the EU despite an overwhelming majority of Scottish voters (62%) opting to remain within the bloc.

So it seems both sides are building their cases for and against another vote on the rhetotical flourishes and broken promises of one another. Though it appears that the pro independence side have morally the stronger argument, with the Westminster side appearing to have assumed legal clout on their side.